The West won’t fight Russia itself. Eastern Europe may have to

NATO’s eastern flank demands stronger guarantees against Russia, but escalation could turn Eastern Europe into the battlefield of a wider war We have come to regard the countries of Eastern Europe as the most conflict-prone and volatile part of the political landscape surrounding Russia, and there are grounds for this view. Immediate neighbors often have the most difficult relationships because the more points of contact there are, the more opportunities for friction, and in Russia’s case, geopolitical logic is reinforced by considerable historical experience of invasion, which means Russia has traditionally sought to ensure that no serious threat can emerge from neighboring countries and that its immediate surroundings remain predictable.

This predictability has been secured in different ways over the centuries, sometimes through direct annexation and sometimes through indirect forms of control. Russia’s western neighbors are small in comparison with it, and their policies have often been driven by fear of their much larger neighbor, whether justified or not. The acute military and political crisis that began in 2022 seems to confirm that stability between Russia and the rest of Eastern Europe shouldn’t be taken for granted, as countries that joined NATO and the EU in the late 20th and early 21st centuries are now pursuing the most intransigent course, seeking not merely to contain Russia but to marginalize it. Their own capabilities are limited, so they have increasingly used international institutions, above all an increasingly militarized EU, to push larger member states towards a tougher position. A recent example is Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski’s rhetoric concerning the Baltic region and Kaliningrad. Mearsheimer: There’s no diplomatic way out of the…