The nuclear danger at sea

Dawn’s October 23 editorial rightly warned about India’s nuclear-armed submarine patrols. The danger is larger than a new vessel at sea. It is a sea-based nuclear force growing alongside precision-strike capabilities, missile defence and a false confidence in initiating military action. Imagining that these developments confer a first-strike advantage or create a safe space for war is imprudent. Pakistan has the capability and resolve to preserve the strategic balance. Retired Lt-Gen Mazhar Jamil, Adviser to the National Command Authority, warned at the International Institute for Strategic Studies on October 13 that continuous at-sea deterrence further weakens the credibility of India’s declared no-first-use policy and points towards an offensive strike posture.

He added that unannounced submarine-launched ballistic-missile tests, with operationalised weapons aboard submarines, raise the risks of misperception and escalation. Pakistan reserves the right to take all appropriate measures to protect its security and the regional balance. At the Islamabad Non-Proliferation Conference a week later, retired Lt-Gen Khalid Kidwai, also an adviser to the National Command Authority, reinforced the warning, saying Pakistan would review its options if India sought to impose a strategic imbalance. In June 2026, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) estimated that India had a stockpile of 190 nuclear warheads and 12 of these deployed on a nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarine for occasional deterrence patrols. That estimate is too low and arrives seven years late. Prime Minister Modi announced the INS Arihant’s first deterrence patrol in 2018 and the Indian Navy again patrolled again during the 2019 crisis . India has three operational ballistic-missile…