Opinion | Egyptian National Security and Ethiopia’s Russian Arms Deal: Strategic Interests and the Pressure of Sanctions

On 28 October 2026, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced from Moscow, on the sidelines of the Russia–Africa Summit, that Ethiopia had received 12 Su-35 fighter jets and would subsequently take delivery of four batteries of the S-400 air defence system. He thanked Russian President Vladimir Putin for expediting the deliveries by a full year ahead of the originally agreed schedule, describing the development as a milestone in strengthening Ethiopia’s capacity for “preventive deterrence”. However, factual precision requires an important distinction. Rosoboronexport, Russia’s state arms exporter, confirmed to Reuters that the initial delivery arriving that day consisted of only two aircraft.

Neither the financial value of the agreement nor the full delivery schedule for the remaining fighters, nor the anticipated delivery dates or deployment locations of the S-400 systems, has been publicly disclosed. The announcement therefore signals a significant arms agreement and the commencement of deliveries, but it does not mean that all the details are yet known. The deal did not emerge in a geopolitical vacuum. Ethiopia is grappling with renewed fighting in Tigray, an insurgency in Amhara, and escalating tensions with Eritrea. Against this backdrop, modernising its air force and air defence capabilities is a logical move from Addis Ababa’s perspective. For Russia, meanwhile, the agreement offers both financial returns and an opportunity to expand its strategic influence in the Horn of Africa, at a time when Moscow is seeking to preserve its share of African arms markets despite mounting Western sanctions. This is where Egypt’s concerns come into focus. In 2018, Cairo itself signed an agreement to purchase Russian Su-35 fighter jets in a deal estimated at approximately $2…