From stability to transformation: 5 tests for Ghana’s 2027 Budget

Ghana is preparing a budget with a different promise. After years of debt restructuring and spending restraint, the government wants to turn economic stability into jobs, investment and higher production. But the repayments coming due in 2027 will compete for the same public money. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the final review of Ghana’s US$3 billion Extended Credit Facility in July. Its successor, the Policy Coordination Instrument, provides monitoring without new financing. The coming budget must show how Ghana intends to sustain its recovery while paying for its next phase of development. There are gains to protect. September inflation was 5. 2%, while provisional public debt stood at 45% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in June. But these figures cannot tell us whether new investments will deliver or how comfortably government can meet its repayments.

Judge the budget by how convincingly it links its promises to financing and results. Five tests matter. 1. Show how the New Economy will be financed The published Fiscal Strategy Document proposes investment equivalent to 1. 5% of GDP annually for four years, approximately US$10 billion. It identifies two sources of financing: an additional 0. 5% of GDP in revenue and room created by reducing the primary surplus. The budget must now show what the money will be used for. Which projects are ready to begin? Who will implement them, and when should the public expect results? A programme intended to create jobs needs measurable employment and production targets alongside its costs. Any private investment expected to follow should be distinguished from money government has actually committed, with public guarantees disclosed. 2. Explain the safeguards behind the lower surplus The government proposes lowering…