From drought to deluge: ‘Super’ El Niño’s expanding reach

PORT MORESBY, 22 OCTBER 2026 (UN NEWS CENTRE) —Across Papua New Guinea, water sources are drying up, crops are failing and food prices are rising months before the worst agricultural impacts are expected. Behind those warning signs is an El Niño whose Pacific Ocean temperatures have already surpassed the equivalent measurements during the historic 1997 and 2015 events – part of an unfolding climate pattern being dubbed a “Super El Niño” by some climate watchers. The 2026-2027 El Niño is forecast to become one of the strongest on record, threatening to intensify drought, floods and other weather extremes across countries already grappling with food insecurity, displacement and economic pressures.

Children on the frontlines, again El Niño can shift rainfall patterns thousands of kilometres from the tropical Pacific, leaving some regions facing drought and water shortages while others contend with heavier rains, flooding and heightened disease risks. More than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories could be exposed to unusually dry or wet conditions between October and December because of El Niño, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warns in a new analysis. “For children, El Niño is far more than a weather pattern. It can mean increased displacement, malnutrition, water shortages and disease outbreaks,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “Children are also at risk of schools closing, while families could experience added financial hardship. ” Already, 1. 1 billion children – nearly half of the world’s children – are already exposed to at least three overlapping climate-related hazards such as drought, extreme heat or floods. In Papua New Guinea, impact is already here Some of those consequences are already visible in Papua New Guinea, a…