Defiant Iran seeks to bruise Trump ahead of midterms

Iran is intensifying confrontational actions against the United States in the hope of further raising the cost of the conflict for President Donald Trump less than two months ahead of the US midterm elections, according to analysts. Over half a year after the war erupted on February 28 with US-Israeli attacks that assassinated supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran is upping the ante, even risking a return to all-out fighting, rather than dialling down and looking into diplomacy. Trump, under pressure to end the war as midterm elections loom on November 3, declared on Wednesday: “I think the war will end immediately after the election” because Iran “can’t hold out any longer”. US President Donald Trump speaks on stage on the first day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Centre on September 09, 2026 in Dallas, Texas.

— AFP But even as the chain of command in Tehran remains nebulous, with Khamenei’s son and successor, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, still yet to make a public appearance, the leadership has doubled down on the Islamic republic’s traditional policy of confrontation with the United States. Far from allowing the return of free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital energy conduit that normally carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas — it has announced and then expanded a new prohibited zone in the area. “Iran perceives that it is winning the war and that the US is losing,” Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa, told AFP . “It perceives a window of opportunity to exploit US weakness and vulnerability to reshape the regional order to its benefit. ” ‘Exploit US vulnerabilities’ Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at UK-based think tank Chatham…