Brazilians head to polls in high-stakes, polarised election

By Brendan O’Boyle Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday in the first round of a narrowly split election after a campaign dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of US meddling. Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, is seeking a fourth term, while Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, hopes to return his father’s right-wing movement to power. A victory for the senator would extend a wave of wins across Latin America by right-wing candidates aligned with US President Donald Trump, while Lula’s reelection could create a headache for Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security. Despite growing worries over Brazil’s public finances and sluggish economic growth, the campaign has offered meager policy debate, as both leading candidates skipped the major TV debates.

If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, the top two will face off on October 25. Surveys show Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro polling roughly even in a likely runoff. Other candidates, including former state governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, have struggled to break through with the polarized electorate, even as Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro are each rejected by roughly half of voters, polls show. Flavio Bolsonaro has promised to seek amnesty for his father, who is serving a sentence of more than 27 years for plotting a coup after his narrow election defeat in 2022. Lula has cast the election as a choice between “democracy and denialism” and repeatedly warned of foreign interference. The Trump factor The fallout from Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction last year has colored much of the campaign. Trump, who called that case a “witch hunt,” imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025, explicitly linking the…