2026 set to be the world’s second-hottest year on record as El Niño drives August to an all-time high

The world has been hotter in the first ten months of 2026 than in any other year on record except 2024, a JoyNews Research analysis of global temperature data shows. Between 1 January and 26 October, the average air temperature at the Earth’s surface was 15. 30°C . That is 0. 64°C higher than the average for the same days between 1991 and 2020, the period scientists use as today’s “normal. ” Only 2024 was warmer over the same days, at 0. 71°C above normal. 2026 is ahead of 2025 (0. 59°C) and 2023 (0. 55°C). The figures come from ERA5, a day-by-day record of the world’s weather produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. JoyNews Research analysed every day from 1 January 1940 to 26 October 2026, a total of 31,711 days.

The analysis comes days before world leaders meet in Antalya, Türkiye, for the COP31 climate summit, which runs from 9 to 20 November. Figure 1: The ten warmest years over 1 January to 26 October. Each bar compares the same days of the year What does 0. 64°C mean? A rise of less than one degree can sound small. Ghanaians feel bigger swings between morning and afternoon on any ordinary day. But this figure is different. It is an average for the whole planet: every country, every ocean, day and night, for ten months. Moving that average even by a few tenths of a degree takes a huge amount of extra heat. That heat shows up locally as hotter days, more intense downpours, and longer dry spells. Scientists call the difference from normal an “anomaly. ” Throughout this article, an anomaly of +0. 64°C simply means 0. 64°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average for that time of year. A slow start, then a sharp turn 2026 did not start as a record year. From January to April, it ranked only…