10 key US House races that could decide the 2026 midterms

WASHINGTON, DC, USA – Republicans in the US House of Representatives are defending a narrow majority in November’s midterm elections . History suggests Democrats will gain seats — they would need to net four to win control of the chamber — but Republicans kickstarted a national redistricting battle that could make Democrats’ path to a majority slightly more difficult. Here are some races to watch: NY-17 US Representative Mike Lawler of New York is one of just three Republicans who represent a congressional district Kamala Harris won in 2024. The others are an open seat in Nebraska and a Pennsylvania district US Representative Brian Fitzpatrick is favored to win. That makes Lawler the most vulnerable House Republican up for reelection. His opponent, Cait Conley, is a combat veteran and national security expert.

Both campaigns have raised about $10 million through September, though Republicans have more than doubled Democrats in outside spending: $12. 6 million to $6 million. CO-8 Former Colorado state Representative Manny Rutinel is among a broad group of Democratic challengers who have outraised Republican incumbents. Rutinel is challenging freshman Republican US Representative Gabe Evans in a district that’s nearly 40% Hispanic. President Donald Trump won it by 1. 8 percentage points in 2024. US House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned with Evans last week, while Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and US Representative Nanette Diaz Barragan of California recently joined Rutinel on the trail. Outside spending in the Colorado district is almost identical, with Republicans and Democrats each pouring in roughly $12 million. TX-34 When Texas Republicans kicked off a national gerrymandering war against Democrats in the hopes of defying historical trends to hold their fragile…